If I were selecting the winners:
Best Picture: Crash
Best Director: Paul Haggis, Crash
Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line
Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney, Syriana
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
I can't do one of those "should win", "could win", "will win" lists because I don't know enough about the politics of awards to do that kind of handicapping.
UPDATE: Kinda impressed, aren't you?